A Little Standings Analysis

With the Penguins sitting comfortably in fourth place in the Eastern Conference I thought I'd take this 3 day break from games and do a little playoff seeding analysis.

Here's a look at the current standings:



If the season ended today the Pens would face off against the Ottawa Senators again. However, the situation would be different because the Pens have home ice advantage. As well as this obvious advantage, Pittsburgh is within reach of breaking the team record for season wins on the road. The record is currently 23, set in 1992-93 (the greatest Pens team that didn't win a Stanley Cup). They would have to win 4 of the last 5 to beat this record. That is an additional advantage this team has over last years.

While the Pens are 1-3 head up against the Sens this season the tallied a HUGE come from behind victory against Ottawa last Thanksgiving Day that proved to be a turning point in the season. Two of the three remaining games were settled by one goal, of which one was an OT loss. So, in review Pittsburgh has been very competitive against Ottawa and will be even more so with the trade day deals that occurred. I know that Marian Hossa would really enjoy putting his ex-team away if given the opportunity.

With 12 games to go and the Pens sitting in fourth with 85 points, they need only secure 6 more points in the remaining games to secure a playoff berth. But home ice would be some much better. To secure home ice for at least the first round they would need to earn around 15 (my guess) points in the remaining. Since the Rangers are tied in points with Ottawa, and the Pens have 3 games remaining against NY it would be very advantageous to take all three of those games, as many points as possible in the 3 Philly games and 4 points in the 2 games vs. the Devils. This would, in my estimation, insure a first place finish in the Atlantic and top 2 in the conference. In this case they would probably face Philadelphia or Boston in the first round.

With all of that being said, I believe it's most important to say that no one can predict what is going to happen down the stretch. There is nothing in professional sports quite like what is going to occur in the NHL in the next 4 weeks. Everyone, including teams that have no shot whatsoever of getting into the playoffs (as evidenced by last weeks loss to the Panthers), play at a level that they have not attained until this time in the season. Every player, on every team knows that if they are not playing for a playoff spot, they are playing for their next contract, or to show what skills they can give to a team for another playoff run next season.

Here is my prediction of how it is going to play out:

1. Montreal
2. Pittsburgh
3. Carolina
4. New Jersey
5. NY Rangers
6. Ottawa
7. Boston
8. Philadelphia

This would put the Pens in a first round match up against Boston. More analysis on this match up to come...